Group G of the 2026 World Cup brings together Belgium, Egypt, Iran and New Zealand — four nations chasing a place in the knockout rounds of the first 48-team World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico. We ran our proprietary AI simulation models through more than 10,000 tournament simulations to forecast exactly who advances from Group G, who tops it, and where the value lies for fans and fantasy managers alike.

In the expanded format, the top two teams from each group qualify automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups — meaning 32 of 48 nations reach the knockouts and almost every group-stage point matters. That math makes Group G fascinating, and our machine learning algorithms have a clear read on how it unfolds.

Group G Qualification Odds: The AI Verdict

Here is how our model rates each team’s probability of advancing from Group G, based on squad quality, current form, market values and historical World Cup data:

Team	Advance Probability	Key Player
🇧🇪 Belgium	72%	Kevin De Bruyne
🇪🇬 Egypt	56%	Mohamed Salah
🇮🇷 Iran	42%	Mehdi Taremi
🇳🇿 New Zealand	20%	Chris Wood

Team-by-Team Breakdown

🇧🇪 Belgium — 72% to advance

Our model rates Belgium as a strong contender in Group G. They are a golden generation still carrying elite quality. Much of their threat runs through Kevin De Bruyne, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Belgium’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Belgium reach the knockout rounds in 72% of runs — a healthy share that makes them strong favourites for a top-two finish.

🇪🇬 Egypt — 56% to advance

Our model rates Egypt as a strong contender in Group G. They are built around a world-class match-winner. Much of their threat runs through Mohamed Salah, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Egypt’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Egypt reach the knockout rounds in 56% of runs — a healthy share that makes them strong favourites for a top-two finish.

🇮🇷 Iran — 42% to advance

Our model rates Iran as a live outsider in Group G. They are organised and dangerous in transition. Much of their threat runs through Mehdi Taremi, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Iran’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Iran reach the knockout rounds in 42% of runs — enough to keep genuine qualification hopes alive, especially via a best third-placed spot.

🇳🇿 New Zealand — 20% to advance

Our model rates New Zealand as the group underdog in Group G. They are spirited underdogs relying on organisation. Much of their threat runs through Chris Wood, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of New Zealand’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, New Zealand reach the knockout rounds in 20% of runs — a slim share, meaning they will need a major upset to progress.

The Favourite vs The Dark Horse

🇧🇪 Belgium are our model’s pick to win Group G, with the strongest blend of squad quality, depth and tournament pedigree. Their challenge is consistency across three games in a congested schedule — but the data makes them the team to beat.

The team our AI flags as the most likely to surprise is 🇪🇬 Egypt. Driven by Mohamed Salah, they have the profile of a side that quietly secures qualification and could even upset the group favourite on the right day. For neutrals and fantasy managers hunting differentials, Egypt is the name to watch in Group G.

Group G Fixtures: Every Match Predicted by AI

We have produced a full, data-driven AI prediction for all six Group G fixtures — each with win probabilities, expected goals (xG), a projected scoreline, tactical breakdown and fantasy picks. Click any match for the complete analysis:

• Belgium vs Egypt — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Belgium vs Iran — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Belgium vs New Zealand — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Egypt vs Iran — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Egypt vs New Zealand — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Iran vs New Zealand — full AI prediction & score forecast

Who Advances from Group G? Qualification Scenarios

Across our simulations, Belgium and Egypt emerge most frequently as the top two — but the expanded best-third-place rule means Iran and even New Zealand are rarely mathematically eliminated until the final round of fixtures. The decisive variables, according to our model, are goal difference and the result of the head-to-head between the two strongest sides. Expect Group G to go down to the wire, with the third-placed team sweating on results in other groups to sneak through.

Fantasy Football: Group G Picks

For World Cup 2026 fantasy managers, Group G offers clear value:

• 💎 Premium pick: Kevin De Bruyne (Belgium) — the highest projected points-returner in the group, with goal threat and captaincy appeal.
• 🎯 Differential pick: Mohamed Salah (Egypt) — lower ownership, strong upside if Egypt advance as our model expects.

For the full methodology, see our guide to the best AI tools for World Cup 2026 fantasy football.

How to Watch Group G Live From Anywhere

Group G fixtures will be split across broadcasters and time zones, and if you are travelling or abroad, geo-restrictions can block your home stream entirely. With Proton VPN, you can connect to a server back home and unblock your national broadcaster in 4K Ultra HD — never missing a Group G goal wherever you are.

Frequently Asked Questions