Group L of the 2026 World Cup brings together England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama — four nations chasing a place in the knockout rounds of the first 48-team World Cup, hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico. We ran our proprietary AI simulation models through more than 10,000 tournament simulations to forecast exactly who advances from Group L, who tops it, and where the value lies for fans and fantasy managers alike.

In the expanded format, the top two teams from each group qualify automatically, joined by the eight best third-placed teams across all twelve groups — meaning 32 of 48 nations reach the knockouts and almost every group-stage point matters. That math makes Group L fascinating, and our machine learning algorithms have a clear read on how it unfolds.

Group L Qualification Odds: The AI Verdict

Here is how our model rates each team’s probability of advancing from Group L, based on squad quality, current form, market values and historical World Cup data:

Team	Advance Probability	Key Player
🏴 England	82%	Jude Bellingham
🇭🇷 Croatia	60%	Luka Modric
🇬🇭 Ghana	38%	Mohammed Kudus
🇵🇦 Panama	22%	Adalberto Carrasquilla

Team-by-Team Breakdown

🏴 England — 82% to advance

Our model rates England as the clear favourite in Group L. They are title contenders with elite Premier League depth. Much of their threat runs through Jude Bellingham, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of England’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, England reach the knockout rounds in 82% of runs — comfortably the highest in the group.

🇭🇷 Croatia — 60% to advance

Our model rates Croatia as a strong contender in Group L. They are masters of tournament football, patient and clutch. Much of their threat runs through Luka Modric, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Croatia’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Croatia reach the knockout rounds in 60% of runs — a healthy share that makes them strong favourites for a top-two finish.

🇬🇭 Ghana — 38% to advance

Our model rates Ghana as a live outsider in Group L. They are pacey, powerful and full of creativity. Much of their threat runs through Mohammed Kudus, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Ghana’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Ghana reach the knockout rounds in 38% of runs — enough to keep genuine qualification hopes alive, especially via a best third-placed spot.

🇵🇦 Panama — 22% to advance

Our model rates Panama as the group underdog in Group L. They are organised and combative CONCACAF outsiders. Much of their threat runs through Adalberto Carrasquilla, whose form and output our machine learning model identifies as a primary driver of Panama’s win probability. In our 10,000-simulation engine, Panama reach the knockout rounds in 22% of runs — a slim share, meaning they will need a major upset to progress.

The Favourite vs The Dark Horse

🏴 England are our model’s pick to win Group L, with the strongest blend of squad quality, depth and tournament pedigree. Their challenge is consistency across three games in a congested schedule — but the data makes them the team to beat.

The team our AI flags as the most likely to surprise is 🇭🇷 Croatia. Driven by Luka Modric, they have the profile of a side that quietly secures qualification and could even upset the group favourite on the right day. For neutrals and fantasy managers hunting differentials, Croatia is the name to watch in Group L.

Group L Fixtures: Every Match Predicted by AI

We have produced a full, data-driven AI prediction for all six Group L fixtures — each with win probabilities, expected goals (xG), a projected scoreline, tactical breakdown and fantasy picks. Click any match for the complete analysis:

• England vs Croatia — full AI prediction & score forecast
• England vs Ghana — full AI prediction & score forecast
• England vs Panama — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Croatia vs Ghana — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Croatia vs Panama — full AI prediction & score forecast
• Ghana vs Panama — full AI prediction & score forecast

Who Advances from Group L? Qualification Scenarios

Across our simulations, England and Croatia emerge most frequently as the top two — but the expanded best-third-place rule means Ghana and even Panama are rarely mathematically eliminated until the final round of fixtures. The decisive variables, according to our model, are goal difference and the result of the head-to-head between the two strongest sides. Expect Group L to go down to the wire, with the third-placed team sweating on results in other groups to sneak through.

Fantasy Football: Group L Picks

For World Cup 2026 fantasy managers, Group L offers clear value:

• 💎 Premium pick: Jude Bellingham (England) — the highest projected points-returner in the group, with goal threat and captaincy appeal.
• 🎯 Differential pick: Luka Modric (Croatia) — lower ownership, strong upside if Croatia advance as our model expects.

For the full methodology, see our guide to the best AI tools for World Cup 2026 fantasy football.

How to Watch Group L Live From Anywhere

Group L fixtures will be split across broadcasters and time zones, and if you are travelling or abroad, geo-restrictions can block your home stream entirely. With Proton VPN, you can connect to a server back home and unblock your national broadcaster in 4K Ultra HD — never missing a Group L goal wherever you are.

Frequently Asked Questions